Oct 30, 2006
Has the naming of Damon Stoudamire as starting PG for the opening game cleared the backcourt issue at all? Has Conley lost his value (I drafted him 11th round)? Is Lowry set to emerge (a monster stat line the other night)?   -- from Mess

Mess, the announcement of Stoudamire as the starter heading into the regular season doesn't come as a surprise as he was a favorite to land the position heading into camp as long as he stayed healthy. That doesn't mean the situation can't change from here on out. Lowry is a reliable backup who could be a starter at some point but it won't likely be on this team as it's clear the future point guard in Memphis is Conley. Another player lost in the shuffle is Juan Carlos Navarro, perhaps the best of the bunch but likely made to serve as a backup at shooting guard due to the backlog of talent at the point. As it is, there aren't enough minutes to go around four ways (five when including Mike Miller in the rotation) and the team will likely give most of the playing time to Stoudamire and Lowry at the top but Stoudamire's health has always been an issue and it's possible the Grizzlies will try to deal the veteran in an effort to open the door for the rookie. Should the latter move happen, we expect Conley to leapfrog Lowry and in that case, your 11th-round pick could be fruitful. There are no certainties, however, and until then the starter has to be the front-runner for fantasy production, meaning it's just as likely the rookie doesn't have an impact until '08-'09.

Oct 30, 2006
I recently drafted and took Bibby in the 5th round but hes now hurt. My only other PG is tinsley and im looking for a sleeper PG who may drop some dimes. Any ideas?   -- from jay pea

That's a tough break considering Bibby has been relatively injury-free throughout his nine-year career. And with one of the game's most injury-prone points backing him up in Tinsley, you're certainly stuck behind the eight-ball. If you only need one starting point Tinsley is your man in the beginning. The Pacers are stepping up the pace on offense and the former-Cyclone could be in for some nice assist totals but will probably end up on the sidelines before long. Although it's unknown which of these players may be available, some under-the-radar '1's include Derek Fisher, Devin Harris, Rafer Alson and Jarrett Jack. All should start in their respective backcourts while Harris could make significant strides in overall production. Also consider Earl Watson, Jose Calderon, Delonte West and Steve Blake. Watson has been named as the starter for the first few games for the Sonics while the other three could end up starting at some point this season with Calderon having the most upside. Unfortunately it's probably the thinnest position there is in regards to range of production and a trade may be your best option as Bibby could be out for as long as three months.

Oct 27, 2006
Should I drop Udonis Haslem for Charlie Villanueva? Villanueva is having a huge preseason but Haslem I think is a solid rebounder and a tough player that can play all season long. Will Villanueva have a great season this time? I am also leaning towards Nick Collison and Walter Herrmann who are still on waivers.   -- from marcus

Marcus, Villanueva has looked good so far but is facing a serious time-share considering the arrival of Yi Jianlian. He is expected to start and should pull in 30 minutes a night but Yi will gradually dip into those minutes and could take over the starting role at any moment. Haslem, meanwhile, should be in for significant minutes with the recent trade. While he isn't a big scorer, he should approach double-digit boards each night and will be looked to produce more offensively than he has in the past. At this point, he's the best option among the four you mentioned, followed by Villanueva, Collison and Herrmann although all four will likely spend time on waivers this year.

Oct 25, 2006
With the injury to Adam Morrison how do you rate these 3 players: Josh Childress, Andres Nocioni and Walter Herrmann?   -- from Mess

Mess, obviously Herrmann is a direct recipient of the injury to Morrison and he proved last year to be a capable scorer when given regular minutes. In terms of production, however, Herrmann won't likely match Childress or Nocioni; both have more experience and upside than Herrmann and provide help in more areas as well. Between Childress and Nocioni, the former has the clear advantage. Despite a bench role, Childress racks up well more than 30 minutes a night and provides serviceable production across the board. In our latest mock, Childress came off the board in the seventh and Nocioni in the ninth while Herrmann was a 14th-round flier. And that's how I would rate them as well.

Oct 25, 2006
Do you think Chris Paul will have his breakout season this year? I was not that high on him come draft day. I got KG as the first pick and planning to get Rashard Lewis and Deron Williams as my 2nd and 3rd pick. But I found Paul hanging around in the second round so I did not get Williams and went for Paul instead. Should I be glad i got him instead of fast rising Deron?   -- from johnq

There's no doubt Williams is on his way to stardom as the floor-leader in Utah and him and Paul should be paired together in many All-Star Games but Paul is still the clear No 1 between the two. Assuming his foot is healthy, and all reports are that he is well on his way to being 100%, Paul has the advantage in rebounding, FT% and steals while their points, assists and 3-pointers are too close to give an edge to either. That's a solid trio of KG, Paul and Lewis and you should make a nice run as long as they stay healthy.

Oct 25, 2006
Is Antoine Walker worth a roster spot in deep leagues now that he will presumably get more minutes in Minny?    -- from powder

Powder, while Walker undoubtedly has more experience than any of the other candidates to play the '3' for the Timberwolves, I wouldn't be so quick to say he will get more minutes or have more value in Minnesota. Walker has been on the way out for awhile and his value to the Wolves extend well beyond what he gives them on the court. Namely, financial freedom sooner than they would have had with the departed. He could see nearly as many minutes as he saw in Miami, meaning 20-25 a night, but there's little question the future is now in The Land of 10,000 Lakes and youngsters like Corey Brewer, Rashad McCants, Al Jefferson and Randy Foye will get the biggest share of the pie. Besides Brewer/McCants, Walker may also be stuck behind Gerald Green and Ryan Gomes in the frontcourt, making his chances of having a serviceable impact very low. To say he will have no value at any point this year would be an overstatement but as it is, there isn't a format he's worthy of using a draft choice on.

Oct 23, 2006
How high should Camby be considered? The injury risk is always there!   -- from jay pea

Jay Pea, the injury risk surrounding Camby is very real but also very consistent. While he seems to always be battling some sort of ailment, they seem to be unrelated in general and his current value is drawn from the 65 or so games he's expected to play rather than a hopeful 80-game slate. Also consider that the players one could possibly choose from at the position are almost always injury-prone. Emeka Okafor, Jermaine O'Neal and Mehmet Okur are all injury risks as are Tyson Chandler and Samuel Dalembert on another value-tier so you'll have to take a shot likely on one of them in your draft. A regular in the first and second rounds in prior years, Camby's injuries have taken a slight bite out of his perceived value but if he can get on the court for 65 games, he's well worth a third-round selection and a safer bet than Okafor and O'Neal. Just cover your backside with a reliable second option a little earlier than usual, perhaps a Chris Wilcox-type in the 8th to serve as insurance.

Oct 23, 2006
Does Devin Harris value take a jump with Jason Terry being moved to 6th man?   -- from Seatown

Seatown, there are many questions in Dallas right now. Avery Johnson has said he is willing to do whatever he needs to get more fire on the court and bringing Terry off the bench throughout the preseason is proof he will do it. Be that as it may, pinning your hopes on the legs of of a 36-year-old injury-prone veteran like Eddie Jones doesn't seem to fit that purpose either. While Jones is one of the most underrated players of his generation, his best days are past and we would be very surprised to see him not only get 25 minutes a night but see much time at all in a starting role. The other name being passed around as a potential starting '2' is Jerry Stackhouse. Stackhouse is certainly a more feasible option to hand minutes and a front role to but his value off the bench cannot be understated either and Josh Howard's two-game suspension to open the season will make him needed at the '3'. As it is, we are hesitant to change the projections of any of the four and still expect the minutes to fall out with Harris and Terry starting on a nightly basis. There are rumors that Howard and Terry are headed to Los Angeles for Kobe Bryant but until that happens, there's no reason to take a different approach on draft day.

Oct 21, 2006
In years passed I've been outclassed come draft day, and I'm looking to make a splash this year, I've done my homework, and I'm really high on TMAC, can you justify him as a 1st rounder, or does his back injury automatically drop him to a 2nd rounder, and a reach in the 1st?   -- from B Kings

Among the league's most dangerous scorers and versatile producers, if you could absolutely guarantee the multi-positional T-Mac will stay healthy throughout the season, you could justify using your first round pick on him. That is simply not the case, however, as he is continually hounded by back issues. The number one criteria of any first round option should be security, both in health and the likelihood the player will fulfill expectations of production. While all players can be labeled a risk to some extent, McGrady carries significantly more. Depending on where you pick in the draft, wait and see if he falls to yhou in the second while using your first on a more reliable option. If you want to stretch for a player, our money is on Dwight Howard but Paul Pierce is always undervalued and well worth the first-round tag as well but as long as you overpay for players, you will continue to be outclassed on draftday. Don't project who you want, keep an open mind and take the best values when you choose, filling in the blanks along the way. Thinking you want to draft a certain position in a certain round will limit your potential and keep high-valued players falling to the teams behind you.

Oct 18, 2006
What are realistic #'s to expect from Ray Allen this year on the Celtics? Do you think he will be the one to sacrifice fantasy stats out of the Big 3?    -- from Starks for 3

Starks, it's logical to assume there isn't enough action to go around to let the trio of Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett from producing at the levels they had previously. That said, it doesn't mean they can't duplicate their overall production but it may require a shift in levels rather than a dropoff. For example, Garnett probably won't score 22 PPG but could establish a career-best in rebounds and Pierce could set a personal-best in scoring but could get fewer opportunities for rebounds. Allen, meanwhile, likely stands the best chance of a decline as he is simply not as talented as the other two, despite being perhaps the game's best long-range sniper, and is a bigger injury risk as well. He should get plenty of room to roam, however, and has multiple passing options that could result in more production in assists. Overall, they each head into the impending season valued similarily to where they've been the last couple seasons and aside from the Celtics renewed playoff hopes, there shouldn't be that big of difference for each of the All-Stars individually.

Oct 18, 2006
I was a little disappointed to see that you did not do a mock draft based on the roto categories - pts, 3 pts, FT%, FG%, bds, stl, blks, assts. 5 guards, 5 forwards, and 2 centers. If you can, please do one.   -- from str

Str, although there are no guarantees, we'll see what we can do. We'll add turnovers to match the most common formats but it shouldn't have too much bearing on the draft overall while it is generally a category we personally dismiss when regarding player's overall value.

Oct 15, 2006
Do you think Dwight Howard will be worth my second pick in the draft? Im in a roto league. I had him last year and ranked 2nd to the lowest in FT% but 1st in rebs. Do you think I can surround him with good FT shooters to compensate? And who do you suggest?    -- from bogart

Bogart, this question has been hounded roto-heads for years, the most common target in recent years being Shaquille O'Neal, and has been argued both sides of the sphere. While it's never going to help your FT% taking a drain like Howard, or Shaq for that matter, the picture doesn't have to be as gloomy as it's painted. Using a 14-man starting roster, (your league may be more or less), including Howard will take about 2 points off the bottom-line, regardless of positional structure. Starting Howard in a league that uses ten starters will take anywhere from 3 to 4 points off your FT%. And for leagues that use a minimized six starters, having Howard among them would subtract from your team FT% anywhere from 3 to 9 points. In looking at the numbers, considering Howard in the shallowest of leagues would certainly kill any hope of respectability in FT%; if you play in larger formats, however, the impact is lessened and can be overcome. What's important is the point from which you start, meaning if your team of 10 would have shot 82% without Howard, the resulting 79% is still enough to get a few roto points. When eliminating FT%, he's a top-ten player and perhaps top-five and that's surely worth your second-round pick.

Oct 12, 2006
I'm in a keeper league where we hold 7 players. We play 2 each at C, PF, SF, OG, & PG. After the 4 obvious "givens" which 3 should I hold? Givens: Amare(PF, not C eligible), Nash(PG), McGrady(OG/SF & Josh Smith(SF/PF). Others: Okur(PF/C), Aldridge(PF/C), Shaq(c), Artest(OG/SF), G Wallace(OG/SF), Barbosa(PG/OG), or Mo Williams(PG) I have the first pick and will be taking Durant(Keeper league!!!).   -- from GB

GB, you have quite the squad to work with, you could probably justify keeping any of them. As it is, the first throwaway is Shaq; he could/should produce better than many centers but isn't likely to do much better than last year and clearly on the way down overall. I'm not sure I'd take a chance on Artest in any keeper format; he's talented but not worth the headache his volatile personality can cause. It would be nice to keep Wallace but considering you are intent on taking Durant with the first pick, there's no need to keep another wing and Smith/McGrady are the right choices for the first two. Having Nash gives you a significant edge in assists so using a keeper on Williams is probably not essential. Barbosa will give you almost as many assists and should Nash go down you have the natural heir to the position. That leaves Okur and Aldridge, both keepable in any format as combo-players capable of big numbers this year. The group, as a whole, should provide ample across-the-board production and positional depth while the draft can be used to fill in the rest.

Oct 11, 2006
When I go to roto format and type in PG using 3pt, assist, steals, turnovers, FT, why is D Williams #8 and M Williams #21 when he is better or even in all categories but assists. Confused, is there something else you use to determined ther positioning? Thanks.   -- from bball

Bball, Mo Williams is better or even in 3PT, steals and turnovers but his lead in all three areas is minimal at best, including dead-even levels in threes, a mere 0.1 advantage in steals and a slight 0.4 edge in turnovers. Deron Williams, meanwhile, has a nearly 25% increase in production from the free throw line (3.1-2.5 made per game) and a monstrous edge in assists. While Mo is projected to dish out a modest 6.3 assists per contest, Deron is projected to hand out 8.9 per contest, not only a clear 41% jump in that category, but the third-highest total among all projected point guards heading into the '07-'08 season. If it's FT% you use and not FTs, Mo is the better shooter but his attempts rank near the bottom of starting PGs and, thusly, his impact is minimalized accordingly. While these differences alone should be enough to give Deron the clear advantage in value (using your format) there is also another factor not included in your format but in the rankings, and that is games played (Deron is projected for 80 games versus 73 for Mo), not a direct category in any league but necessary when determining ultimate value when comparing players. In general, these numbers should be more than enough to justify the rankings while pinning Deron among the league's top points. Good luck!

Oct 8, 2006
I'm in a roto league that counts TO's. I hate it because the best players have the ball alot and have TO's. Are the returns in getting low TO players worth it and are there enough of them to include in a draft strategy?    -- from GSG

GSG, turnovers are a fairly common component of fantasy hoops leagues, both point and roto, so there's no reason to get too steamed about it but you are correct in your analysis. Plain and simple- the players who touch the ball the most, and likely the ones you want, are the ones that are going to also give the ball away the most. When playing in point leagues, it's easy to hide the turnovers within the projected rankings as they are merely another factor in the final numbers. When playing in a H2H roto league (such as the standard yahoo leagues that supply one or no points in a number of categories over a given week) they have a different impact. When drafting in leagues like the latter, trying to find balance between all categories generally leaves you too thin to be powerful in any single area. For this reason, it is recommended you find 5 or 6 related categories to base your cheat sheets on (related meaning points, rebounds, blocks, FG% or steals, assists, 3PT, FT%, etc). This will help you mainstream your players and give you optimum production in the majority of categories, which is all you need to win. In this format, turnovers are ALWAYS ignored because of the reason you mention and, as such, should have no bearing on your draft rankings. If you are in a season-long roto, meaning an accumulation of stats, it's not as easy to do, however, and you'll need to put some thought into it. Either way they shouldn't bog you down too much.

Oct 6, 2006
I expected Andrew Bynum to make a bigger impact than he did last year but after a good start he kind of faded. Do you think he'll be better this year and will he still become the star he was supposed to be as the next Shaq?   -- from Laker Phanatic

Phanatic, we, too, were intrigued by the early season play of Bynum last year but as the season wore on his inexperience became more and more evident. Not all was gloom though as he posted ten double-doubles, including six during January, along with a handful of games with 10+ points or boards as well. While expectations are obviously hefty for the bigman, it's easy to forget he played most of last season at 19-years-old and won't turn 20 until a few days before this season opens. With Kwame Brown still lingering and Chris Mihm returning to the fold, there's no reason to throw Bynum to the wolves but make no mistake, he is their center-of-the-future and Phil Jackson's preferred choice in the middle for 25-30 minutes a night. Unlike last year, we expect him to have a smaller impact earlier in the season than later but overall, it wouldn't be surprising to see him approach double-digits in points and 7-8 rebounds on average while taking a big step forward in general. He'll fly well under the radar with last year's subpar numbers but he should turn the corner quickly and his production should far exceed the modest pricetag in most formats.

Oct 4, 2006
Is Dwyane Wade gonna be 100% healthy to start the year and do you think we can expect typical Wade numbers from him this season?   -- from Sticky Nick

Nick, there are various reports regarding Wade, who is coming off knee and shoulder surgeries, and they hover anywhere from him missing the first week or two of the season to the first month. While there is little question as to his overall ability, given the high draft slot he is expected to be drafted, the extent of the missed time is certainly a concern. To be safe, we would suggest riding the high end of the scale and expect something in the range of 15-20 missed games but that doesn't mean he isn't valuable. The biggests questions are 1)will the health issues be behind him when he returns and 2) will he be around when teams are jostling for playoff spots later in the season. Drafting him for the 65-70 games he should play can still reap huge rewards and, knowing he is willing to put his all into every contest even through injury, he's someone we would feel confident taking a shot at just to have for the latter weeks and playoffs. Nonetheless, he is among our Eastern Conference Risks to be released this coming Saturday.

Oct 1, 2006
Do you think Carmelo's points will fall considerably this season because of AI and also what round should I draft him?   -- from dviva

Dviva, in 43 games with Iverson on board last season, Carmelo averaged 27.6 points, which falls just shy of his season average and can be explained away as a result of the added presence or merely trend. And we would expect more of the same this year. What is known is this- Iverson is far more willing to play the unselfish role of dishing out opportunities than Carmelo and therefore, it's likely Carmelo will continue to make a run at the league's scoring title while AI takes a backseat as a top scoring point guard for the duration of his stay in Denver. At this point, Carmelo's overall production is holding him back and, as it is, anything more than a late second-rounder is too steep a price to pay but if he falls to you early in the third, it should be hard to pass him up. He's still only 23 and Iverson's presence should not hinder Carmelo from attaining his ceiling but rather help him achieve it while providing a glimpse of what it means to play coast-to-coast basketball. He's a star-in-the-making and should be a premier scorer in the likes of Kobe and the former Iverson for years to come.